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Google Price Target: $16,578.90

Some of you will immediately recognize this headline is a joke. For the rest of you, I was kind of hoping the ninety cents part would give it away.

If you’re reading this because you’re interested in what I have to say about Google (GOOG), you can stop now. I’m not going to say anything interesting about Google. Rather, I’m going to say something (that I hope is) very interesting about the wonders of compounding.

Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders was released today; I’ll write a lot more about it tomorrow. For now, I’m just going to pull out one little nugget:

Between December 31, 1899 and December 31, 1999, to give a really long-term example, the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497 (Guess what annual growth rate is required to produce this result; the surprising answer is at the end of this section.)

I knew what Warren was up to, and had some idea of the historical growth rate for the Dow, so I guessed 6%.

Here’s the answer to the question posted at the beginning of this section: To get very specific the Dow increased from 65.73 to 11,497.12 in the 20th century, and that amounts to a gain of 5.3% compounded annually. (Investors would also have received dividends, of course). To achieve an equal rate of gain in the 21st century, the Dow will have to rise by December 31, 2099 to – brace yourself – precisely 2,011,011.23. But I’m willing to settle for 2,000,000; six years into this century, the Dow has gained not at all.

I wish I could tell you that my guess was close. But, it wasn’t even in the right ballpark. The difference between a 5.3% annual gain and a 6% annual gain may look relatively small. In fact, the difference is not small. If, during the 20th century, the Dow had achieved a gain of 6% compounded annually rather than a gain of 5.3% compounded annually, on the eve of Y2K, the index would have been sitting at 22,302.33.

The rallying cry of the bubble years would have been Dow 20,000. And what of Dow 10,000? The index would have added its fifth figure in 1987. That’s right, if the Dow had achieved a gain of 6% compounded annually during the 20th century, the index would have broken the 10,000 mark while the Berlin Wall was still standing.

Over a century, that extra 0.7% really adds up. I recently wrote an email to a member of my family who had just had her first child. You would think that blathering on as I do here each day, I would have a sea of investing advice to offer. In fact, I provided only a single drop: Time trumps money.

If you want to have more money than you will ever need, your best bet is to find a few places where you can deploy large sums of money that will earn good returns for a great many years, and will not require you to share any of the spoils with Uncle Sam until you are done accumulating said spoils. To do this, you will have to own a business either in part or in whole. I’m an investor, not an entrepreneur; so, let’s stick to the economics of becoming part owner of a business.

It’s time to discuss Google. I have a price target of $16,578.90 on Google. Does that sound reasonable? No. Well, I may have forgotten to mention this is a 50-year price target? So, does it sound reasonable now?

Don’t answer. First, we need to see what it would take for Google’s share price to reach $16,578.90. Last I checked, each share of Google had a book value of $31.87. Everyone says Google’s a great business. They may be right. But, I like all my surprises to be of the pleasant variety. So, I’m going to start by chucking the idea of Google being an extraordinary business. For now, let’s just call it average.

Who would want stock options in an average business? Let’s pretend no one would. Since there’s no downside, I think everyone would; but, let’s just ignore that inconvenient fact. We’re going to pretend Google won’t be diluting its shares at all. For the next fifty years, there will be no new shares and no stock splits.

As a public company, Google has earned an above average return on equity. It hasn’t been an earth shattering return on equity (it’s no Timberland), but it’s been better than most. Of course, with Google, you’re not paying up for the current return on equity – you’re paying up for all the ridiculously profitable growth to come. I’m willing to meet the Google bulls halfway on this one. I’ll give you growth, but no unusual profitability. You’re going to get a 12% return on equity, but there will be no limit to your growth. In my model, Google can literally conquer the world.

With something like $9 billion in equity to start with, a 12% return on equity, and the reinvestment of all earnings in the business, Google would get awfully big.

Don’t believe me? I know a 12% return on equity looks ridiculously low, but watch what happens. In 2056, Google will be a $312 billion company. Of course, the big question is: do I mean market cap or revenue?

I mean profits! At a P/E of 15, Google would have a market cap of $4.68 trillion. Yes, with a “t”. That same Google share that was quoted on Friday at $378.18 would be worth $16,578.90. Google’s EPS would be $1,105.26. You read that last part right. Each Google share would be earning three times its current (lofty) price.

So, what’s the catch? There are two problems with this scenario. One, in 2056, it’s more likely Britney Spears and Kevin Federline will be celebrating 50+ years of marital bliss together than it is that Larry Page and Sergey Brin will be celebrating 50+ years of 100% retained earnings at Google. For that matter, I’d say it’s more likely Larry Page and Sergey Brin will be celebrating 50 years of marital bliss together in 2056 – which is to say it isn’t very likely Google will be able to retain all of its earnings for the next half century (unless you know something about Larry and Sergey that I don’t).

The second problem is much less amusing. You see, if on Monday, you were to shell out the $378.18 for a share of Google, when the stock reached $16,578.90 in 2056, you’d be able to brag to Britney and K-Fed about your annual compound gain of…drum roll please…7.85%. And that’s before taxes and inflation.

Google would have a $4.68 trillion empire, and you’d have an annual return of 7.85% – how can that be?

Time turns molehills into mountains and mountains into molehills. In the very long-term, growth that only earns ordinary profits leads to stocks that only yield ordinary gains.

But, isn’t Google’s (lofty) price the problem? It’s part of the problem.

However, it’s probably a smaller part than you think. Right now, Google is trading at about twelve times book. What would your return be if you bought Google at book value? 13.32%. That’s a good return (fifty years from now, it’ll probably be considered a great return). Still, it’s somewhat unsatisfying. I mean, if you had the prescience to buy a $4.68 trillion behemoth when it was just a $10 billion company (remember, you’re paying book this time) all you’d get for your trouble is 13.32%.

Think of it this way. At $31.87 a share, 85% of your purchase price would be backed by cold, hard cash and you’d be buying a stock with a P/E of 6.3. A P/E of 6.3 is insanely cheap. So, why would buying a stock trading at a P/E of 6.3 and growing earnings per share at 11.4% a year for fifty years only yield a 13.32% return? Where are the insane gains?

Return on equity is the puppet master here. Take another look at the numbers. They’re doing something strange; they’re converging. Everything is getting closer and closer to 12%. Why? Because that’s your destiny. If you buy a business that earns 12% a year and you hold it long enough, guess where your returns are headed?

Here’s one last excerpt from Buffett’s letter. He’s writing about all businesses, but a long-term holding in a single business works in much the same way:

True, by buying and selling that is clever or lucky, investor A may take more than his share of the pie at the expense of investor B. And, yes, all investors feel richer when stocks soar. But an owner can exit only by having someone take his place. If one investor sells high, another must buy high. For owners as a whole, there is simply no magic – no shower of money from outer space – that will enable them to extract wealth from their companies beyond that created by the companies themselves.

It is now obvious I picked Google just to get your attention. Google may very well earn a return on equity much greater than 12% for the next fifty years. It has already earned “extraordinary profits”.

Even if it does grow at a phenomenal rate, it will, during the next half century, likely shed excess equity by paying dividends, buying back stock, or transforming itself into a holding company. I don’t see a way the company could possibly put more than $2.5 trillion in equity to good use in search and related businesses. In nominal terms, that’s well more than California’s GSP (Gross State Product). In 2006 dollars, it would still be something like $600 billion. Armies have been raised for less. So, if Google really does want to conquer the world, it could just try doing it the old fashioned way.

TEMPUS EDAX RERUM

Geoff Gannon writes a daily value investing blog and produces a twice weekly (half hour) value investing podcast at Gannon on Investing.

I sometimes catch myself having an attitude when I make reference to the tech crash that began March 2000. For over a decade before the market presented us with the greatest bull market in history. In technical stocks the eighteen months preceding the March 2000 crash served up winner after winner. There were signs the market was overpriced two years before the crash. The people who got out too early experienced stress with all the potential profits they watched go by.

So if I give the impression that it was easy to recognize the bubble burst and exit, I apologize. I was there and I remember every day I thought there would be a bounce back also.

I think we could look to a far greater market enthusiast (and perhaps optimist) than I in the person of Bill O’Neil, publisher of Investors Business Daily. Bill is a master of school of growth stock opportunities. In his book, “How to Make Money in Stocks” he presents his approach to identify stocks that are poised to move up. He is not concerned about the advisors who are always looking to buy at a cheap price so they can sell at a higher price. He would argue, “Buy high and sell higher” is a better plan.

So when a stock completes all the criteria he has in his CANSLIM formula he will be looking to buy and ride it higher. So here is his wisdom that makes his approach full circle. If a stock has all the features of a stock that is going to soar to new heights yet declines in value 7 % he recommends selling your position. You do not have to wonder why. Just do it.

So if we all used his technique (I never let this concept out of my trading plan) we can hope to participate in the next great bull advance and still not bet the farm in the process.

For a FREE report on HOW TO TRADE FAST, enter your email address at:

http://lb.bcentral.com/ex/manage/subscriberprefs?customerid=12826

One of the most important aspects in maintaining a good table image at the poker table is having the ability to change gears at the right time and exploit other players’ expectations of what they have decided you are capable of doing. If you stick too hard to one style, it can become pretty transparent even to the simplest of players what you are holding. Do you always bet the nuts? Do you check every single time you miss the flop?

Changing gears in fact not only important for keeping yourself from being picked off, it’s also a great way to pick up pots you had no business winning. A poker player who has established a tight image, only raising a certain number of hands and showing down big hands when you play a pot, can often then turn that image into a profitable market by building on the expectations set up in your opponents’ heads.

Being able to switch up your game and bluff in good moments puts your image to work for you, and for those spans of time where the cards aren’t coming, the position plays can end up making difference in keeping your head above water while you wait to make a better hand to take to war.

At the same time, building a reckless image early by bluffing and showing it, can also be exploited in the inverse manner, developing that crazy image and then actually playing some solid poker.

Link together man’s favorite interests and you’re guaranteed to unearth a mania that’s named a Web sportsbook. Seriously, what could possibly be more creative… Picture a knot of sports fanatics cheering a given home players, and all the time stakes are sure to be proclaimed matching the ruckus. Enthusiastic to get their share of the enjoyment, onlookers will often venture to augur who will make it in the forthcoming tournament. This all will develop into a friendly, good humored tournament termed Web sportsbook.

It may well appear habit forming, but, rather sports betting is essentially merely entertaining and to tie up with one’s buddies. You’ll be able to bet a any minor quantity of mazuma and still have an outstanding time. Below, you’ll find a few select infos to get started sports betting.

If you want to place your wager, you’ll probably want to visit a Web sportsbook, i.e. a place which takes Web sportsbook. In the United States, there’s four states where everybody can go for sports betting legally, but if you don’t care for legality, you may do it everywhere provided you can determine a bookie and happen to be of legal age. The sports competitions you’ll have a choice of risking some money on are pro apart from college basketball plus football, professional hockey, professional hockey, apart from wagers on both horse and dog racing. You’ll be able to bet on the entire results of a game, when a given opponent will be defeated, and even if a given coin toss in a game will land either heads or tails.

The sportsbook company bank on stats to help you arrive at a decision which players you think will make it. There’s the distribution, i.e. point leverage given to a the losing side anticipated to be defeated by X number points. We’ll be able to choose between plenty of varying breeds of lays: straight bets, parlays, i.e. combined stakes on multiple sports activities, teaser stakes, including, in addition, over/unders, the straight bets, where you have to choose the team you believe will prevail or fail being the general favorite in sports betting.

Well, why not give it a try, and entertain yourself for good measure… Just be on the guard so that you won’t get too enthusiastic and throw away your complete retirement pension on a whim. For you’re certain to find yourself grieving for it all your life. Play your favorite aces sports bet games online, 24 hours a day!

Whether you’re looking for a cheap property in Bulgaria for your next family home, or for a place for vacation during your time off, you’ll want to make sure you know how to get the most affordable property for your money.

Here are a couple of tips and suggestions to make sure that you’re searching properly for cheap property in Bulgaria, and that you find a home that you can be completely satisfied with.

Bulgarian property is among the cheapest to buy in Europe, and is ideal for living because of the rich culture of the people, and the history of the area. And, since the cost of living is so low, you can find property there that is of good quality fairly easily.

Many people choose to buy older homes in Bulgaria, and then renovate them, so that the houses will be worth more should the owner decide to sell. An older home in Bulgaria generally costs around 20,000 pounds (which is extremely affordable for the average ‘middle-class- Bulgarian), and there are even a few new developments in Bulgaria that are considered beachfront property. These new homes are still affordable, and many Europeans are taking advantage of the great views the properties offer, as well as the fact that most of these homes are in or close to beautiful villages, historic towns, and resort areas.

If you’re thinking of purchasing cheap property in Bulgaria, do your homework first.

On the left navbar you will find links to the best areas to invest and have a basic understanding of the Bulgarian property market.

Let’s look at the basic facts about options trading before we go any further. Like any human endeavor, options trading is best described in very careful language so that there’s no confusion about our meaning. First, let’s take a look at exactly what an “option” is. An option refers to just that, the option to purchase certain stocks or certain commodity items by a certain date. This means you do not gain controlling interest in the stock or commodity until that date. For this reason, options can, and often do, expire worthless. There are two types of options contracts:

1) Contracts to buy blocks of stocks by a certain date 2) Commodity futures which are options to buy blocks of hard goods by a certain date

If you have options on 10,000 bushels of corn, whoever sold it to you cannot sell it to someone else until the expiration date of your contract has expired. In exchange for giving you this right, they wrote the contract and took money from you. If you don’t exercise your options prior to the expiration date, they will expect full control of their corn again, and will sell it someone else. What makes options such fascinating instruments are these facts:

1) With options you can sell that which you don’t own or ever plan on buying 2) You can buy something you don’t ever plan on physically holding and sell it for a profit

Another great thing about options is their inherent flexibility: although you have the right to buy or sell a certain stock or commodity, the choice is yours. You’re not forced to exercise your options. You can always sell your options contract to someone else. Many traders of commodities and options always sell the contracts only and have never taken physical possession of any underlying asset they’ve ever traded. The leverage in options gives you a chance to earn extremely high returns. These types of options we’re describing are referred to as covered options. With covered options you actually plan on or do own the underlying asset that you purchase options contracts for. Uncovered options are the exact opposite. Like the word uncovered means exposed, uncovered or naked options are considered more dangerous, because you are merely speculating without having an ownership interest. You are exposed to the risk without the benefit of owning the asset.

Options trading involves a great deal of leverage in the form of margin loans to your trading account. All options trades are highly leveraged, so you need to add margin interest to your calculated costs when considering a career in trading options. Pricing and potential returns on options trading depend very much on real world circumstances. If you purchase corn futures, for instance, there are literally hundreds of variables that affect the price of the corn, and hence your investment. If a corn shortage is expected in a certain part of the world, your investment might hit big because the price of corn could rise dramatically. On the contrary, perhaps government subsidies have introduced a glut of corn into the world market. In that case, your investment might tumble. Futures contracts for commodities and options contracts on stocks are strictly based on guessing what events will happen in the future. Of course you’ll always attempt to make as accurate as a guess as possible, but let’s face facts: in this world unforeseen things can and do happen. For this reason, protect your downside, and only invest with money you can afford to lose. Options trading can be very profitable, but unsurpisingly it’s also very risky.

In April 2006, Accustream iMedia Research recently came out with a powerful study entitled “Streaming Video 1998 – 2010: March To Mainstream”, which shows, among other things, that video streams have increased from 284.6 million in 1998 to a whopping 18 BILLION in 2005.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the estimated world population is 6,512,370,258. This means that on average there were about three streams for every single man, woman, and child on earth.

This further enhances the claim of video streaming companies such as UnityWorks! Media that online video is an indispensable tool that has- and will- continue to gain traction.

Streaming online video can be ignored, but those who do will be at an extreme disadvantage – and sooner than the Mainstream Media (TV and print) would have you think – as consumers flock to the rich media content they want and now expect.

Source: Accustream iMedia Research

Jonathan Healy is the webmaster at UnityWorks! LLC. UnityWorks! has recently streamed its millionth video stream.

The thought of a safari can often probably stir up the thoughts of amazement and the location of stunning Africa. Safaris have been well established in South Africa for years and have become attractive with the UK holiday tourists cause of the fabulous weather and the tremendous wildlife that will be explored.

The very best time to visit Africa for an awesome safari is around January as the weather is fantastic. The number of Irish tourists who travel over to South Africa for a safari has increased in the last six decades due to the strong pound and also due to the increased attention of Africa.

The wildlife that you will probably observe is extensive, you might see tigers and eagles all up close. Zambia is ideal for folk who desire to come and visit the wildlife and also wish for a romantic holiday. The walking safaris are not too strenuous that you cannot go back to your lovely hotel in the evening for a romantic evening. That is why safaris in Africa will often be perfect for a honeymoon. Africa has some of the best privately owned hostels and walking safaris in the country and should be experienced by all at least once. Try Africa safari holidays from Kaingo and explore your wild side.

Something peculiar happened to me whilst I was using the Stansted airport parking facilities the other month, for my holiday abroad. I was getting out of my car – as I’d just parked and was unloading my luggage and stuff I’d brought with me to take to the terminal, and this strange gentleman approached me. He was wearing some sort of ridiculous looking trench coat, as if he was pretending to be a secret agent from a movie or something. I tried not to pay too much attention to him, as I had a plane to catch and was still unloading the car anyway, but the man just stood there for what seemed like an age and I just had to turn and face him and ask him what his problem was and if I could help him in any way. As I turned to face him, I noticed something remarkable about the way he was dressed, sure enough, he was wearing a dark trench coat like he thought it was a cool thing to do, but the shirt I could see underneath was some sort of luminous yellow color, like those jackets that workmen usually wear when they’re working on-site. The man looked rather bizarre in this combination of clothing. I stood there looking at this guy for a few seconds, trying to take it all in, I asked if he needed help or anything, the man replied: “Um, excuse me? Is this the Luton airport parking area?” I told him that he was sadly mistaken and was indeed even in the wrong part of the country. He then went on some tirade about how Satnav and GPS could never get anything right and that technology just wasn’t the answer. I mentioned something about maybe using a proper map next time, bid the man farewell and proceeded on my way to the airport, and safety.

The video gaming experience is different for everyone, it could end in hours of entertainment for a family or for the less experience, the final result could be disappointment due to lack of knowledge of how to operate the game console. When you are shopping for a new game console, you may find it difficult as there are so many different options to choose from. There is misinformation everywhere, so the information you are looking for may prove difficult to find.

First off, here are some questions that you need to ask yourself and you should keep in mind while reading:

-What are the types of games that interest you?
Are you an HDTV owner, or do you intend to buy one?

Why dont we go over your financial situation so we can figure out what your budget is for it?

Which piques your interest the most, playing games with a group or the solo playing experience?
Do you currently have any of the old game systems?

There was a period in time where one could not find a game system that cost more. Fortunately, prices are lower now than at that time. For only 400 USD (contingent upon which style you purchase)it has pricing that is more attractive compared their competitors. Prices change constantly so chech the latest video games console prices online.

The Playstation 3 is more than another mere game console! It has the capability to be a Blu-Ray, CD, or DVD player; as well as; it can upgrade DVDs to HD. The PS3 would be perfect for those with an HDTV and no HD movie player as you can get both of your movie and gaming experiences in the same box. This is with the latest technology of Blu-Ray, the leading high-definition movie format. If you aren’t viewing Blu-ray movies in high definition, you won’t see any better grade of the programs. That feature will not be of any use to you if you have only an old-fashioned standard-def TV.

While the PS2 controller is nearly identical to it, this unique controller utilizes a motion sensing technology known as Sisaxis. The controller can be tilted Six different direction for interactive game play. How well this is going to work varies from each game. Doing it well means you’ll gain lots of experience, doing it wrong means you’ll be nothing more than a problem. The vibration feature is missing from the Sixaxis controller. The DualShock 3 controller with vibration will not be included with the new PS3’s, even though it has been released, until June 12, 2008.

You will find a lot of the same games for Xbox 360 and PS3.